Montreal’s commercial real estate recovery is gathering momentum, but investors are becoming increasingly selective about where they put their capital. Multifamily remains a favourite, while renewed interest in office, industrial and certain retail properties is widening the field of opportunity heading into 2027.

Ahead of Connect CRE Montreal, Connect CRE Canada spoke with Thierry Samlal, principal partner at PMML and head of the firm’s Quebec and Ontario brokerages, about the differences between the two provincial markets, Montreal’s strongest property sectors and the strategies his team is emphasizing with clients. Samlal will participate in the Building Montreal: Development, Infrastructure & the Future of Place panel at the Sept. 1 event at Deloitte, 1190 Avenue des Canadiens-de-Montréal. You can register here.

Q: You oversee brokerages in both Quebec and Ontario. Where do you see opportunities for clients in either province that may not be as apparent in the other? Where do you see similar opportunities in both provinces?

Samlal: Quebec’s advantage is speed and flexibility. Multifamily cap rates are compressing and rents are climbing at a pace that Ontario’s rent-control framework does not allow landlords to capture in the same way. Transaction velocity across the province is also running well ahead of historical norms.

A related but often overlooked strength is the ownership structure. A large share of Quebec’s commercial capital is held by private individual investors rather than a handful of institutions. That spreads ownership across a broad population of buyers instead of concentrating it in a few large funds.

That breadth adds resilience. The market does not seize up when one or two institutions pull back, and opportunities are spread more evenly across brokers and deal sizes.

Ontario’s advantage is scale: deeper institutional capital, larger portfolios and a more liquid office and industrial market concentrated in the Greater Toronto Area, where a smaller number of large players tend to drive volume. Multifamily there is rebounding sharply on institutional demand, although it carries a significant supply overhang from purpose-built rentals and converted condominiums that Quebec does not face to the same degree.

Office is the clearest shared trend. Both markets are seeing a strong rebound after a multiyear correction, although Ontario’s recovery is narrower and concentrated almost entirely in top-tier, well-located buildings. Montreal’s rebound is broader.

Industrial remains a structural favourite in both provinces, supported by logistics, manufacturing and reshoring activity, even as available space edges higher in each market.

Retail is where the two markets diverge most. Quebec’s retail investment is accelerating, while Ontario’s is pulling back amid tighter financing conditions and softer population growth.

The common thread is institutional capital rotating toward defensive, income-producing assets. Quebec’s broad private-investor base, however, gives its market a different kind of depth.

Q: Focusing on property types in the Montreal region, multifamily has shown momentum throughout 2026. What other sectors have gained investor interest compared with a year ago, and which ones look strongest heading into 2027?

Samlal: Multifamily is not the only story in Montreal. Office has emerged as the standout, with transaction activity and investment volume rebounding sharply after two years of repricing. Capital is clearly re-entering a sector many had written off.

Industrial remains steady, supported by continued demand from logistics and manufacturing users, even as the pace of very large transactions has slowed.

Retail is more selective. Fewer deals are closing, but those that do are larger and better priced, suggesting investors are becoming more discerning rather than withdrawing entirely.

Land is quietly becoming a story of its own. Municipal and institutional land dispositions, particularly sites tied to transit-oriented development and industrial expansion, are drawing sustained interest. Pure residential land is lagging because of longer approval timelines and higher development charges.

At the same time, the buyer pool is shifting. Real estate companies and institutions are taking a larger share of the biggest office and industrial deals, building on the private-investor base that continues to dominate by transaction count.

That combination — private capital driving transaction volume and institutional capital driving the largest deals — is giving office and industrial more depth than they had a year ago.

Financing conditions are also helping. Mortgage-lending activity across sectors has been climbing steadily, while refinancing volumes have held firm. That supports appetite for the more capital-intensive deals typically required in office and industrial.

Emerging industrial subsectors, including logistics, distribution and advanced manufacturing tied to the battery and energy supply chains, are also attracting a disproportionate share of new investor attention compared with traditional industrial properties.

Heading into 2027, office carries the most momentum of any sector outside multifamily. It is emerging from the deepest correction of the cycle, and its rebound is broad rather than concentrated in a handful of trophy deals. That suggests there is more room to run.

Industrial is a close second, less because of a dramatic acceleration than because its underlying demand drivers — logistics, manufacturing and the energy transition — are structural rather than cyclical. That makes it a safer long-term bet, even if the pace of dealmaking normalizes.

Q: What property types are outperforming in Montreal for pricing and investor interest compared with Canada as a whole?

Samlal: Multifamily is Montreal’s clearest outperformer. Cap rates have tightened to among the lowest in any comparable Quebec market, while pricing continues to rise even as financing costs remain elevated elsewhere.

Office is the second story worth watching. Pricing and transaction volume in Montreal are accelerating faster than in any other Quebec region we track.

Directionally, that is consistent with the national picture. Multifamily is holding up better than most other asset classes across Canada, while the office sector is splitting into two very different markets. Well-located and recently repriced buildings are attracting strong demand, while older and poorly positioned properties are still struggling to find buyers. Montreal appears to be tracking the more favourable side of that national divide.

Industrial adds a third layer to the comparison. Montreal’s industrial pricing has risen steadily rather than in sharp swings. That contrasts with markets elsewhere in Canada where heavier speculative development has periodically increased availability and placed pressure on rents.

That steadiness is itself a form of outperformance. It signals a market in which supply and demand are remaining roughly in balance rather than overshooting in either direction.

Montreal retail is also holding its pricing better than the national picture might suggest. Softer population growth and weaker consumer spending have weighed on retail fundamentals in several other provinces, while Montreal’s retail investment has continued to accelerate.

Q: When working with clients, what overarching themes are you and your team emphasizing in the current market?

Samlal: Discipline on entry pricing is the first message. Even as cap rates continue to compress, tighter yields leave less room for a pricing mistake than they did a year ago.

Second, financing structure now matters as much as the headline rate. With spreads still moving, every deal is stress-tested against refinancing risk rather than only today’s cost of debt.

Third is timing. Transaction velocity is back near cyclical highs, so hesitation can cost opportunities as well as money.

Fourth is diversification. Clients who remained concentrated solely in multifamily are missing the rebound now underway in office and industrial.

Beyond those four themes, we are encouraging a flight-to-quality mindset, particularly in office. The gap between well-located, well-maintained buildings and dated, poorly positioned properties continues to widen. Clients holding the latter need a repositioning or disposition plan rather than a wait-and-see approach.

We are also remaining conservative about underwritten rent growth across sectors. Pricing in several asset classes already reflects considerable optimism, and building in a cushion protects against a slower-than-expected recovery.

For long-standing private owners, we are proactively raising succession and portfolio-review discussions. A meaningful share of Quebec’s commercial real estate is held by an aging ownership base, and favourable pricing conditions make this a good time to revisit hold-versus-sell decisions before a generational transfer forces the issue.

Finally, we are emphasizing granular, regional decision-making over provincewide averages. Conditions vary enough from one region to another that a strategy based on broad numbers alone will miss the risks and opportunities specific to an individual submarket.

Going into 2027, these themes point toward a more selective and better-underwritten market rather than a return to indiscriminate buying.

Connect CRE Montreal | Sept. 1, 2026: Quebec’s commercial real estate market is changing, and the leaders shaping its next chapter will be at Connect CRE Montreal on September 1st. Join an influential audience of 200 investors, developers, brokers, lenders, and owners for high-level networking and conversations focused on the trends, opportunities, and challenges driving the market. Hear from leaders at Stonebridge Financial, Yardi, Mondev, PMML, and more. Register today to stay informed, expand your network, and connect with the people moving Quebec commercial real estate forward.