Alberta’s construction market is expected to lean increasingly on non-residential development over the next decade as housing activity cools from its current highs.

BuildForce Canada’s 2026-2035 outlook projects non-residential construction investment will rise through most of the forecast period, driven by commercial and institutional buildings as well as major engineering projects.

“Alberta’s construction outlook continues to be driven by strong levels of non-residential construction growth and elevated levels of non-residential maintenance activity,” said Irwin Bess, executive director of BuildForce Canada.

Commercial construction is expected to benefit from continued population growth and major developments including Scotia Place, Calgary’s new arena, and the expansion of Arts Commons.

There is also a substantial institutional pipeline. The Red Deer Regional Hospital expansion and Alberta’s School Construction Accelerator Program are among the health-care and education projects expected to keep contractors busy.

Engineering activity is forecast to remain elevated through the medium term, supported by oil and gas, utilities and transportation infrastructure. Calgary and Edmonton light-rail projects and the Yellowhead Mainline natural gas pipeline are among the developments expected to sustain activity through 2029.

The growth comes with a labour challenge.

BuildForce forecasts employment in industrial, commercial and institutional building construction will be 31 per cent higher in 2035 than in 2025. Overall non-residential construction employment is expected to rise 15 per cent, while engineering construction employment increases 10 per cent.

At the same time, retirements could leave Alberta short as many as 5,300 construction workers by 2035. A tighter labour market could put added pressure on construction schedules and costs as developers move a growing pipeline of projects toward completion.

Residential construction is expected to move the other way. Employment in the sector is forecast to fall 16 per cent from 2025 levels by 2035.