Farmland on Hamilton’s edge could become development land, setting up a contest over which properties gain value.

The Ontario Land Tribunal has ordered Hamilton to add at least 1,600 gross developable hectares to its urban boundary. Its population is forecast to climb from 584,000 in 2021 to 820,000 by 2051.

Council planned to absorb that growth through denser development within the boundary. The tribunal found the strategy placed too much emphasis on apartments and would not meet demand for houses and townhomes.

For landowners, the ruling fixes the amount needed, but not its location. Inclusion opens a route to municipal services and housing approvals, lifting property values.

Three groups seek inclusion. Elfrida covers 1,131 developable hectares in upper Stoney Creek. White Church comprises 340 hectares southeast of the airport. Upper West Side controls 105 hectares near Twenty Road West and Upper James Street.

The White Church hearing begins Sept. 14; Elfrida’s is set for Jan. 18, 2027. The Upper West Side hearing was paused while the tribunal decided how much land was required.

Mayor Andrea Horwath told Connect the decision “takes the future direction of our city out of local hands where it belongs.” She said Hamilton had pursued more housing and density within the existing boundary while seeking to protect agricultural land.

The city’s legal team is reviewing the decision and will brief council on its implications and “our options, if any,” Horwath said.

Hamilton also has 4,320 hectares of “whitebelt”: rural land outside the urban boundary but unprotected by Ontario’s Greenbelt.