Avison Young’s 2026 Canadian Mid-Year Outlook indicates the commercial real estate market remains stable and confident, with most of the firm’s industry experts expecting activity to increase or remain steady through the second half of the year despite ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

The survey of more than 200 Avison Young professionals, completed in June, found that 96% expect market activity to increase (49%) or remain the same (47%). Although expectations for increased activity declined to 49% at mid-year from 64% in the firm’s annual outlook, confidence improved from a year earlier, when 45% anticipated stronger market activity. Sentiment remained stable in Toronto, Ottawa, Calgary and Edmonton, while Vancouver and Montreal recorded stronger optimism.

“Across Canada, we’re seeing markets become more actionable and decisive. Economic and geopolitical uncertainty remain, but occupiers and investors are more willing to move forward where fundamentals are strong,” said Mark Fieder, an Avison Young principal and head of the firm’s Canadian business. “The second half of 2026 is shaping up to be less about waiting for certainty and more about executing on opportunity.”

The report says high-quality, value-add properties continue to attract the strongest interest from occupiers and investors. Interest rates and financing conditions remain key considerations, with capital targeting resilient income streams, stronger operational performance and opportunities supported by market fundamentals.

The outlook also found a shift in development sentiment. Risk concerns became the leading reason projects could be delayed or paused, rising to 25% from 15% in the firm’s annual outlook, while concerns about costs and tariffs fell to second place after declining 9% since the annual outlook and 11% year over year. Avison Young said the results suggest developers are adapting to the financial impacts of economic and geopolitical conditions and are becoming more focused on project-specific risks.

But the U.S. administration’s plan to impose new 50% tariffs on Canadian goods starting in August remains a “must watch.”

The survey expanded this year to include valuation and property management professionals alongside brokerage and project management teams, providing what the firm described as a broader view of the commercial real estate market.

“Broadening the respondent base was a critical next step in our bi-annual outlook,” said Marie-France Benoit, an Avison Young principal and the company’s director of Canadian market intelligence. “By incorporating a wider view across service lines, Avison Young can share a truly holistic, comprehensive snapshot of the commercial real estate landscape. This gives us key, measurable insights that strategically navigate clients through their critical business and real estate decisions.”

Given their proximity to active client transactions and discussions, Avison Young’s experts are are uniquely positioned to yield relevant perspectives and to identify early signs of trends, said the company.

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