Calgary and Edmonton will see seniors housing supply growth in coming years while other Canadian major markets struggle to meet demand, says a Cushman & Wakefield executive who specializes in the asset class.

Cushman & Wakefield has reported that Canadian seniors housing supply will not meet demand for new construction over the next decade. But Alberta’s two major will be able to grow their supply, said Sean McCrorie, head of the company’s seniors housing and healthcare valuation and advisory services group, in an interview with Connect.

“I think it’s going to be more of a vibrant and active development market in those major metros within Alberta,” McCrorie. “And, indeed, it has been over the last five years. Both Calgary and Edmonton have seen over 20% supply growth, so developers have been able to gain traction and build new product in those markets.”

Overall demand is expected to accelerate as Canada’s over-80 population increases 4.8% annually between 2025 and 2042. Some 200,000 new seniors housing suites will be required over the next decade to maintain market equilibrium, says Cushman.

Edmonton and Calgary seniors housing occupancy levels have risen steadily, to about 90% and 87%, respectively, this year after sinking during the COVID-19 pandemic. Calgary supply has increased upwards of 3% year-over-year according to the report, and the city has had the fourth-highest growth level in Canada behind Ontario’s York and Durham regions and Victoria, B.C. Edmonton supply has decreased modestly from a year earlier.

Calgary is less constrained than other Canadian cities when it comes to seniors housing development because it has more available land.

“The land is not as scarce as Vancouver, as a comparative; as a result, we will continue to see fairly decent rates of new development in Calgary, and it’s very encouraging,” said McCrorie.

“There’s been quite a bit of a narrative of optimism around the province of Alberta, particularly in real estate, over the last 12 to 18 months, and we’d expect that to continue.”

McRorie expects the overall outsized Canadian demand and forthcoming reduced vacancy to “create a little bit of a pressure-cooker situation.”

But there could be less heat in Alberta.

McCrorie co-authored the seniors housing report with his Cushman colleague Heather Payne.