A shortage of suitable small homes is limiting downsizing among older Canadians, delaying a potential wave of housing turnover that could benefit younger buyers, according to REMAX Canada.

New research from the company suggests that Canada’s aging population is poised to reshape the housing market over time, with nearly one in five Canadians already over 65 and that share expected to reach almost 25% by 2030. While this demographic shift is expected to drive increased downsizing, limited housing options are slowing the transition, says REMAX.

“While downsizing won’t happen all at once, the direction is clear,” said Don Kottick, president of REMAX Canada. “Canada’s aging population will undoubtedly shift demand and availability of housing over time, but progress will depend on improving access to housing that meets seniors’ needs.”

The new research has implications for Canada’s hard-hit condominium market, which is currently dealing with an oversupply do to slow presales, more distressed asset, and other market, economic, and geopolitical factors but could face a shortfall in the medium-to-long-term, real estate experts have told Connect.

According to the REMAX survey, 49% of Canadians report low availability of downsizing options in their communities, while another 8% say there is no availability at all. Among those aged 65 and older, 65% report low or no availability.

Of those surveyed, 16% of seniors say they plan to move into a smaller home within the next decade, compared to only 10% of all Canadians who have similar plans. Among prospective downsizers, 73% expressed concern about their options, including 32% who are very concerned.

“We’re seeing many homeowners who would consider downsizing, but they’re struggling to find suitable options in their communities,” said Kottick. “Without sufficient inventory to support these transitions, many are choosing to stay in their homes longer, which limits movement of younger buyers across the market.

“Downsizing is an important factor in the natural churn of the housing market, and headway will depend on improving access to appropriate housing options for older Canadians. “Without it, our research indicates that many homeowners may delay or abandon their moving plans entirely, further constraining the flow of inventory into the market.”

The findings also point to potential downstream effects for first-time buyers, with 23% of Canadians aged 18 to 34 planning to purchase their first home within the next 10 years, said REMAX. While 34% of Canadians believe increased downsizing would make it easier for younger buyers to enter the market, 26% think it would make it harder and 29% see no impact, suggesting outcomes will depend largely on future housing supply.

The findings are based on a survey conducted by REMAX Canada between March 30 and April 1, among 1,507 adult Canadians from the Angus Reid Forum, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.53%.