Prime Minister Mark Carney first budget is expected to highlight billions of dollars worth of new infrastructure investments.

His Liberal government will table the budget in the House of Commons on Tuesday. Because the Liberals have a minority government, it will require approval from at least one other party. According to political convention, MPs are required to toe the party line on a budget vote, rather than being allowed to cast what is known as a conscience vote or, in other words, decide on their own whether to accept or reject it.

Many of the investments are already known. They include include developments led by the new federal major project office and tied to proposed fast-tracked approval legislation; the Build Canada Homes initiative and a boost in defence spending equivalent of 5% of Canadian GDP.

It remains to be seen whether the budget will include other unexpected investments tied to some investments, but some are considered likely as Carney attempts to offset increased U.S. tariffs that continue to weaken the Canadian economy. On Sunday, Carney indicated that widespread cutbacks are coming to the federal civil service as the government focuses on investments tied to infrastructure projects.

Arguably, the budget marks Carney’s first major test since he replaced Justin Trudeau as prime minister in the spring. A budget vote is automatically considered a confidence vote in the House.

An election campaign around the Christmas season would anger voters, a point that Opposition parties will consider strongly as they cast their votes on the budget. A large government spending increase tied to the infrastructure investments will also receive close scrutiny.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has declined to say whether his party, the Official Opposition, will support the budget. He has called on Carney’s Liberals to keep the deficit below $42 billion and scrap the carbon tax.

NDP Interim Leader Don Davies has stated that his party will take a wait-and-see approach before determining how it will vote. Davies told reporters that the party could abstain from voting.

Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet has stated that his party is unlikely to support the budget unless the government meets its demands, which include increasing old-age security payments and health-transfer funding allocations to the province.

Carney’s could also win support for the budget if a sufficient number of Opposition MPs are absent when the vote is held.

Accordingly, all Liberal MPs must be present to help ensure that the budget passes.

Pictured: Tanker at LNG Canada dock in Kitimat, B.C. with first cargo bound for Asia. The terminal’s proposed expansion project is among those that Carney has recommended that the new federal Major Projects Office approve.

Photo: LNG Canada