Multi-unit developments will drive an increase in Edmonton housing starts, says the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

Edmonton is expected to buck the trend of a decline in new-home construction in 2024. CMHC has forecasted that overall Canadian housing starts will decline as lagged high interest rates catch up with construction.

Due to strong presales, multi-residential construction exceeded single-family home builds preventing a decline in new supply nationally in 2023, CMHC said in its 2024 Housing Market Outlook. Presales declined on the whole in 2023, prompting the federal housing agency to forecast an overall Canadian decline in 2024.

But Edmonton is a different story.

“Housing starts are expected to remain strong in 2024, comparable to what was observed in 2023,” stated CMHC. “We also expect starts to trend upward in 2025 and 2026, driven by sustained demand for new multi-unit housing and expectations of continued growth. Favourable economic conditions, population inflows and reduced housing inventories will encourage developers to start more multi-unit projects.”

The Alberta economic outlook is positive as a result of favourable labour conditions, stable energy prices and significant investments in the petrochemicals, oil and gas, and power sectors. Meanwhile, CMHC expects relative housing affordability and lower living costs to continue to attract international and interprovincial migrants.

“Total housing starts are forecasted to remain robust, propelled by economic fundamentals and a strong demand for lower-priced multi-unit housing developments,” stated CMHC in its report.

CMHC expects the rental market to remain tight as low vacancy, due to insufficient supply, drives rent growth. Sale prices are also expected to increase due to low supply.