No new condominium projects were launched in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area in the first quarter, marking the first such occurrence in at least 30 years, says Urbanation in a new report.

“I think for buyers, there’s a fear of catching a falling knife,” Shaun Hildebrand, president of Urbanation, told The Toronto Star.

“A pretty significant confidence issue among both developers,” is one key factor in the absence of starts, he added.

As the region’s condo market downturn entered its fifth year, sales fell to a new 35-year low, with 246 new units sold in Q1 2026, down 52% year-over-year and 94% below the 10-year Q1 average of 4,046 sales.

Even as sales at newly completed projects rose 17% annually to a four-year high of 148 units, inventory continued to build. A record 4,295 newly completed units remained unsold at the end of the quarter—more than double the level a year earlier and nearly five times higher than two years ago. Based on sales over the previous 12 months, there were 92 months of completed new condo supply available, a figure that does not fully reflect presold units where buyers failed to close. A further 8,629 unsold units were under construction and expected to be completed within the next few years.

Developers reduced asking prices on standing inventory to an average of $1,189 per square foot in Q1, down 5% from a year earlier and 13% below the peak recorded three years ago. By comparison, resale units in buildings registered within the past three years averaged $859 psf, a 25% decline from the market peak in Q1 2022. The gap between developer asking prices and resale values remained at a record 38%. However, a recently announced full HST rebate for one year is expected to reduce prices for unsold new units by about $100,000 on average, narrowing the gap to roughly 20%, says Urbanation.

“After the condo market sank to a new multi-decade low in the first quarter, it was encouraging to see a number of new initiatives announced that should help improve sales, reduce inventory and get more construction underway,” said Hildebrand in a news release. “However, with market confidence still very fragile and demand fundamentals slowing down, the recovery process is likely to begin slowly”.

The volume of completions, a key factor putting downward pressure on resale prices, has begun to ease. A total of 7,201 units were completed in the first quarter, down 21% from a year earlier. Another 14,649 units are scheduled for completion over the remainder of the year, bringing the 2026 total to 21,850 units—down from 29,616 in 2025 and 29,924 in 2024. Completions are projected to decline further to 14,659 units in 2027 and 13,039 in 2028, with only 2,029 units currently slated for completion in 2029.

Construction starts totalled 1,254 units in Q1, a six-quarter high largely driven by a single large project. Meanwhile, 963 units were cancelled during the quarter and are being converted to purpose-built rental. Since the beginning of 2024, a total of 11,424 condo units have been cancelled, including 4,064 units converted to rental, resulting in a net reduction of 7,360 units.

Urbanation is a Toronto-based research and consulting firm that has tracked the condominium market since 1981, providing data and analysis on development activity, pricing, sales and supply trends across the Greater Golden Horseshoe. Its quarterly survey compiles detailed project-level information through industry relationships and ongoing field research, offering comprehensive insights into new condominium development and market conditions.

Pictured: Downtown Toronto

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