Vancouver’s retail real estate market is positioned for a strong year, supported by improving consumer spending, lower borrowing costs and a lift in visitor activity, says a leading Colliers broker who specializes in the sector.

Sherman Scott, a vice-president based in Colliers’ Vancouver office, made the comment in an interview with the Connect on Friday after the commercial real estate advisory firm released its first-half 2026 outlook.

“Despite what’s going on on the worldwide stage,” said Scott, referring to geopolitics, the overall commercial real estate market and economic conditions, “I’m still pretty positive that [Vancouver] retail can remain fairly strong at least, at least throughout 2026.

Scott played a large role in the publication of the report, which found that market fundamentals are expected to strengthen as easing interest rates flow through to household budgets, helping to sustain retail sales and gradually revive leasing momentum, says the report.  While the national retail sector faced headwinds in 2025, including trade uncertainty and cautious expansion plans, conditions entering 2026 point to a more supportive operating environment for retailers and landlords.

“I think we’re going to continue to see low vacancy rates for a variety of reasons,” said Scott.

Retail-supply growth has been hampered by a lack of new office projects that has prevailed in recent years due to the struggles of the latter sector, he said. Scott noted that most new developments are mixed-use projects with ground-floor retail. The virtual stoppage in office development has also curtailed retail projects, “really choking off the supply of new retail at the same time.”

“I expect, just because of the limited supply of retail, that our vacancy rates are going to remain low, and there still is an upwards pressure on rental rates,” said Scott.

In Vancouver, rising spending power and an anticipated increase in domestic and international visitors ahead of the men’s soccer 2026 FIFA World Cup are expected to bolster retailer confidence.

The World Cup is too short-term of an event to have long-term implications, but the global event will likely lead to more pop-up store openings, said Scott. These factors should reinforce demand for well-located space, particularly in prime urban and neighbourhood shopping areas, even as population growth moderates.

“Because the short nature of it, I don’t think it’s going to have a dramatic effect on people’s decisions, as far as long term leases,” said Scott. “It’s more of the pop-ups and the established retailers that are going to benefit from it.”

The report expects the long-awaited opening of the Oakridge mall redevelopment, known as Oakridge Park, will also help bolster the region’s retail market.

“I just think it’s a new addition to the market,” said Scott. “We don’t have compared to the other cities, as much luxury retail as, I think, can be absorbed. I That mall is going to be predominantly luxury retail. So, it’s bringing a lot of new players into Vancouver that aren’t here. We’ve really only got Alberni Street in downtown Vancouver, which is a block and a bit of luxury retail.”

The World Cup will put Vancouver on the world stage, like the 2010 Winter Olympics did, adding to the city’s global appeal, he added.

“So, I’m pretty excited about it,” said Scott.

Efforts to determine the future of the region’s former Hudson’s Bay Company department-store spaces also bode wells in his view. However, plans for the vacant spaces may not be finalized until after 2026, he added.

Vacancy is forecast to edge higher as new supply continues to come online, but is expected to remain low by historical standards, helping underpin stable rents and investor interest. Scott noted that central high-street vacancy is below 3%, and suburban grocery-anchored retail properties are less than 1% vacant.

As capital gradually returns to the retail sector, buyers are likely to remain selective, favouring high-quality assets anchored by essential and service-oriented tenants in strong Vancouver submarkets, says the report.

Susan Thompson, Colliers’ director of Canadian research, was the report’s lead author.

Pictured: Future, complete Oakridge mall redevelopment known as Oakridge Park in Vancouver.

Rendering: QuadReal