Canadian Investors Facing No Major Barriers: Fieder
Connect is holding its Summer 2025 Leadership Series in which top executives from Canadian commercial real estate firms provide insights on the state of the market. Today, Mark Fieder, head of Avison Young’s Canadian business, and Jonathan Peretz, JLL’s executive managing director of national leasing, offer their views.
What potential investment barriers could people be overlooking?
Mark Fieder: “I don’t know that our investors are overlooking anything because they’re very professional and understand the landscape that that they’re investing in. But if you’re asking me what could go wrong, that would be, probably, inflation creeping back in because of tariffs and such. That would precipitate, maybe, the Bank of Canada taking a look at interest rates and, possibly, cost of capital going up, inflation going up. I think those would be the signs that investors would be looking for and, perhaps, adjusting their investment parameters. I can’t see any other geopolitical reasons why Canada would have any barriers when we give the Carney government enough time to see where they’re going with this. But [based on] everything they’ve said, there’s a very pro business agenda afoot and that’s another reason why I think people will look to Canada and be more comfortable investing.
How do you think tariffs will impact Canadian CRE investment during the second half of 2025 and beyond?
That’s a really interesting question and I don’t know that I have a clear answer for you because I would have told you that tariffs were keeping people on the sidelines because of uncertainty six months ago. But I think that’s changing and I think the business community is starting to realize that we’ve got to get on with decision making, which means that, unless there’s something that comes down in terms of a real punishing tariff regime from our neighbours to the south, things are going to percolate along just fine and we’ll find ways to live with some of the tariffs that we’re going to have to live with. Hopefully, the Canadian government led by Mark Carney, you know can do a very good job at the negotiating table to lessen the impact.
“I know that’s a wishy-washy answer but I think, really, it’s a little bit unknown. But I think investors and the business community are getting past the uncertainty piece with tariffs and they recognize that we’re going to live with tariffs in some form or other. The [Donald] Trump presidency is in place, and they’re going to get on with business.”
Jonathan Peretz: “When considering the impact of tariffs on Canadian CRE investment, particularly within the industrial market, it’s clear they have had a material effect. I fully agree that tariffs noticeably slowed down leasing velocity and investments in the first half of 2025. The inherent uncertainty surrounding tariff policies initially fostered a wait-and-see approach among many occupiers and investors, and we even saw some of our clients begin to look at expansion opportunities outside of Canada as they strategically navigated these global trade complexities. The manufacturing sector continues to be affected by tariffs as companies look to mitigate future trade risks and enhance supply-chain resilience.
“However, this same pressure is also accelerating longer-term strategic shifts, such as reshoring and nearshoring, as companies are increasingly bringing manufacturing and warehousing closer to end-markets to mitigate future tariff risks and supply chain vulnerabilities, which ultimately increases demand for specific industrial space within Canada. As we’re seeing tangible shifts in inventories and production from overseas to nearby North American markets, Canada is receiving early signals of this supply chain recalibration, reinforcing the principle that investment will follow the tenants.
“What I’m now witnessing is a change in leasing momentum through the second half of 2025. This resurgence is driven by the industrial sector’s underlying resilience. As occupiers gain greater clarity on trade policies and fine-tune their strategies, they are actively moving forward with their space requirements here. Therefore, I firmly believe this positive leasing velocity will not only continue to finish out 2025 strongly, but will also gain significant traction and accelerate well into 2026, solidifying the industrial sector’s position as a key growth driver in Canadian CRE, despite the lingering complexities introduced by tariffs.”