Top Executives from Harrison Street, Goodman Commercial, Shindico Provide Market Insights
Connect is holding its Summer 2025 Leadership Series in which top executives from Canadian commercial real estate firms provide insights on the state of the market. Today marks the first edition in the series. Read on as Jonathan Turnbull, managing director and head of Canada for Harrison Street; Alex Akman, chief operating officer at Shindico; and, Mark Goodman, founder and principal for Goodman Commercial, share their insights. And, watch for more comments in coming days and weeks.
What is your outlook for Canadian CRE investment over the rest of 2025 and into 2026?
Jonathan Turnbull: “We believe there will be a rather mixed bag for Canadian CRE investment over the coming 18 months. Some sectors will see strong support/demand and others will remain rather illiquid as investors continue to assess their real estate portfolio and look to transition its composition over time. The institutional investor presence in Canadian CRE is strong and, as such, the activity of owners is not rushed, but rather calculated. They can afford to be patient, which will likely lead to muted transaction activity.”
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Alex Akman: “Real estate continues to be a very local market, and I think we’re seeing that play out right now. We know that, for example, Ontario has maybe come off the top as to where it was, from both a rental and condo-unit perspective. And of course, that will trickle through the remainder of the economy. I do have concerns about what’s going on in Ontario, specifically about the condo market, the quality of some of the assets that have been built, the quality of some of the locations that have been selected for high density. And is there really demand for a 500-square-foot unit along the highway? I don’t know the answer to that. We’ll find out in 2027 or 2028 as the market normalizes a little bit. As it relates to our market Manitoba, we’re very bullish. We think that we’re in a bit of a golden era right now, in that we didn’t have the run up that any other Canadian city had.”
How do you think tariffs will impact investment during the second half of 2025 and beyond?
Mark Goodman: “For my market, multi-family [real estate sales], I think it’s a lot of nois. It’s a whole bunch of noise. And, I was of the opinion that the tariffs never really affected our market. … It’s something that people like to point to as an excuse as to why, but that’s manufactured and I don’t see that being an issue. Why should tariffs have any impact on multi family locally? I don’t see it. I don’t I don’t believe it has any material impact on [property] values in Metro Vancouver multi-family.”
Alex Akman: “My view is that tariffs are likely going to result in material price increases, not materialism, very expensive, but construction-material price increases. Which, as a result, is going to make the building more expensive. Which means [as a property owner] you’re going to need more rent to just to achieve the same return. For example, Alumicor shut their Winnipeg office down. That is a big problem for us. There’s not a lot of aluminum-window suppliers in the city, and that’s one of the biggest ones nationally, internationally. So, now you’re looking for a different product that’s made in Canada to avoid the tariffs, and the tariffs have also resulted in a competitor closing. So, we know what that means for market pricing. If you’re the only one, you’re probably able to charge more. So, we’re a little bit nervous from that perspective on the development side.”