Top Executives from Spear Realty, Other Firms Share Insights on Market
Connect is holding its Summer 2025 Leadership Series in which top executives from Canadian commercial real estate firms provide insights on the state of the market. Today, Diana Hoang, managing Mark Goodman, Jonathan Turnbull, managing director and head of Canada for Harrison Street; Alex Akman, chief operating officer at Shindico; and, Skyline CFO Wayne Byrd, share their views. And, watch for more comments in coming days and weeks.
What is your outlook for Canadian commercial real estate investment over the rest of 2025 and into 2026?
Diana Hoang: “The outlook for the Canadian market, the industrial investment market: There’s definitely opportunity for investors, when it comes to groups that are struggling on sustaining their cash flow, and if they don’t have enough cash flow coming in that they bought at the high end. They were going to see a lot more opportunity for investors, so a lot lower terms of price per square foot compared to some of the Asian markets, especially when you have capital coming in from Europe. We are seeing, still seeing, a confidence level from the European market to invest in Canadian real estate.
“I think it’s a matter of, and I’ve heard this in the conference as well, that there’s a lot of unknowns in the U.S., and same with the Canadian market. The Canadian market, we’re seeing a lot more optimism, optimism and support on development. To some extent, there are still users looking to occupy space here, and that’s why we still have development coming on stream for big-box industrial. It’s a bit slower now, because we do have a lot of availability, but there is optimism when it comes to design-builds. So investment, or capital being injected into the Canadian market, we’re still seeing, and we’re hearing, that it’s still still steady from other areas.”
What’s your outlook on foreign investment in Canada within the next six to 12 months?
Diana Hoang: “Steady. I mean, I’ve been hearing and from some of our colleagues in the industry, groups wanting to pour money into it. In Canada, they were drumming up business or drumming up capital to invest here. So I do hear there is a substantial amount. I don’t know the exact fact of the numbers, you know, if the flow has gone up. … But I am hearing that it is continuous injection.”
Jonathan Turnbull: “Harrison Street is rather bullish on foreign investment in Canadian real estate. Our flagship Canadian core-plus open-ended fund has attracted global investment over the past 3 years.
“Institutional investors globally have emerged from the post-COVID real estate world — increased volatility, divergence of sector results and industry repricing — seeking new alternatives for their capital. Traditional strategies that worked for 20-plus years are being questioned openly and investors are working hard to find new ways to improve their real estate portfolios. As Canada has always been a secondary market for investors, the search for ‘something new’ has helped increase their focus on Canada which is translating into increased investment.
“Lastly, Harrison Street believes that many of the traditional excuses used by global investors on why ‘no’ to Canadian real estate investment have been debunked in recent market action. Canadian correlation to the U.S. market has declined and, based on current political environment, is expected to continue to diverge. The real estate premiums in Canada have grown and currently offer attractive relative value differentiation to other G7 markets.”
Wayne Byrd: “I’m quite optimistic about Canada’s prospects of attracting foreign capital for the foreseeable future, particularly in income-generating multi-residential, industrial, and retail sectors.
“Canada continues to be viewed globally as a resilient market and remains a primary destination to deploy capital. We see this in the 2025 Kearney FDI Confidence Index, where Canada was named the second most attractive country for foreign direct investment. The country’s political stability, strong legal framework, and reliable returns from core real estate assets are key factors driving that foreign interest.
“At the policy level, there’s growing recognition that foreign capital can be part of the solution to Canada’s housing supply challenge. The federal government is reportedly evaluating a new framework backed by CMHC which would allow foreign investors to purchase multi-family rental housing, provided those assets remain rentals for at least 25 years. This would mark a significant shift from the long-standing restriction on foreign residential property ownership and could unlock new sources of capital for purpose-built rental development.
“If this policy is implemented, it would represent a constructive step forward and address housing shortages in Canada while maintaining long-term affordability and stability. For investors with patient, income-oriented capital, Canada remains a highly appealing destination for real estate investment.”